Is this idea worth pursuing?

Does this sound familiar?

• You have an idea, and friends and family say it's great.

• You're ready to build the website, pick the name and run ads, but you're not sure who will buy.

• You don't know how big the market is or who you'd really be competing with.

• You're taking an existing business into a new market and assuming what worked before will work again.

The short answer

The most common reason new ventures fail isn't money or competition. It's that no one needed the product. CB Insights' 2024 analysis found that was the cause for 42% of failed startups. And only about 40% of new businesses survive to their fifth year (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024).

Before you spend on a website and ads, answer a few questions with evidence: who will buy and why now, what they use today, how they buy, and what could sink it. An afternoon of research gives you a direction. If the answer is "change the plan", that's a win: it's cheaper to learn now.

Do it yourself

1. Answer six questions in writing. Which group of customers you can reach first. Who your real competitors are, including spreadsheets, workarounds and doing nothing. Who is most ready to buy, and what makes them act. How this market buys. Which risks are manageable and which could sink you. What your first 90 days look like, in order. Mark each answer as evidence or a guess.

2. Read your competitors' unhappy customers. For your top five competitors, read the 10 most recent reviews of three stars or below. Note each competitor, its weakness and your opportunity, and look for complaints that repeat.

3. Write your ideal customer in one paragraph, then challenge it. List the three assumptions with the least evidence. For each, ask: "If this were wrong, what would change about how we sell?"

4. Talk to three to five possible buyers. Ask about the problem and how they handle it today, not whether they like your idea.

5. Find where your buyers already pay attention. Newsletters, groups, associations and events. Compare that with where you planned to market.

6. Expanding? Treat the new market as a startup. Don't assume your customers, competitors or channels carry over.

7. Decide: go, wait or change the plan. Write down what you need to see at 30, 60 and 90 days to keep going.

How you'll know it's working

• You can name three to five real people or businesses who would pay.

• Competitor complaints show a clear pattern you can serve.

• At least one assumption changed. That's the research doing its job.

• You have a written go, wait or change decision, with the conditions for each.

Go deeper

• Before You Spend Your First Marketing Dollar, Read This The six questions in full.

• Entering a New Market? Here's the Intelligence You Need Before You Go In Why your playbook doesn't transfer.

• 3 Launch Intelligence Quick Wins: What Smart Founders Do Before They Build Anything The review check, customer paragraph and channel check.

• The $197 Question That Might Save You $50,000 Is the market real, and is it worth investing in?

• Business Idea Viability Scorecard. Free. Rate your idea on demand, reach, economics and early-customer proof, with Go, Test more or Stop readings. Get it just below.

Want help getting this done?

You can do all of this yourself. If you'd rather move faster, or you know it needs doing but don't have the time or in-house skills, we can build the plan with you and hand it off, so a local or lower-cost team can run it.

• One Practical Fix a Week. A free weekly email with one practical idea. Sign up at the bottom of this page.

• Business Launch Intelligence Brief ($197, 3 business days). Is the market worth entering? Ends with a GO, WAIT or CONDITIONAL-GO verdict.

• Business Opportunity Deep Dive ($747, 3 business days). The market looks real: should you invest, and how? Economics, pricing and a phased plan.

• Market Readiness Score ($750, 3 business days). Is the market ready to buy before you spend your launch budget?

• Free consultation. 30 minutes on your situation.